Breaking Down Miss Lebanon 2017: A Mathematical Approach

Blame the engineer in me, but while the rest of Lebanon tuned in zealously to Miss Lebanon last Sunday on LBCI – or equally, on Twitter – I waited a few days to catch it on YouTube. Armed with control over the play, pause, and replay buttons, and wielding a pen and notepad, I thus watched one of the country’s most highly anticipated entertainment stunts of the year.

Ordinarily, we don’t apply a scientific lens to beauty pageants. Sure, there are some numbers involved, notably the height and weight of each participant. But I was interested in a completely different set of numerical figures, and that was the judges’ scores.

What I discovered would intrigue the most discerning of audiences.

Miss Lebanon 2017 contestants in elegant wear (photo source: APF)

Let’s start with the basics: name, height and weight (in both metric and English units), and order of appearance in the pageant lineup, which as a variable is more instrumental than first meets the eye.

Spot	Surname	First name	Height (cm)	Height (in)	Weight (kg)	Weight (lbs)
1	Gedeon	Amani	172	67.7	58	127.6
2	Kahwagi	Carole	171	67.3	53	116.6
3	El Jurdi	Daria	183	72.0	64.5	141.9
4	Boustany	Elsa	170	66.9	55	121.0
5	Mouawad	Eva	169	66.5	47	103.4
6	Sader	Jana	177	69.7	57	125.4
7	Munayer	Lucie	167	65.7	53	116.6
8	Hayek	Mariam	178	70.1	62	136.4
9	Nicolas	Marita	165	65.0	52.5	115.5
10	Barrak	Mireille	176	69.3	56	123.2
11	Matar	Niveen	172	67.7	57	125.4
12	Helou	Perla	175	68.9	58	127.6
13	Khoury	Reem	166	65.4	50.5	111.1
14	Najem	Sabine	178	70.1	62	136.4
15	Mohsen	Yousra	175	68.9	57	125.4

The preliminary round of competition comprised a swimsuit catwalk. All girls were decked out in identical yellow one-pieces and rated on a scale of 10. Minimum score: 9.675. Maximum score: 9.875. Average score: 9.765.

Here’s the roster in order of appearance:

Spot	Surname	First name	Swimsuit score
1	Gedeon	Amani	9.675
2	Kahwagi	Carole	9.731
3	El Jurdi	Daria	9.769
4	Boustany	Elsa	9.700
5	Mouawad	Eva	9.688
6	Sader	Jana	9.888
7	Munayer	Lucie	9.700
8	Hayek	Mariam	9.744
9	Nicolas	Marita	9.700
10	Barrak	Mireille	9.819
11	Matar	Niveen	9.725
12	Helou	Perla	9.850
13	Khoury	Reem	9.769
14	Najem	Sabine	9.875
15	Mohsen	Yousra	9.838

It may not be immediately perceptible, but of the top six ranking ladies in this category, five emerged from spots 10-15. In other words, five of the last six girls to strut their stuff ended up scoring the highest marks. This table, organized by descending score magnitude, clarifies my point:

Spot	Surname	First name	Swimsuit score
6	Sader	Jana	9.888
14	Najem	Sabine	9.875
12	Helou	Perla	9.850
15	Mohsen	Yousra	9.838
10	Barrak	Mireille	9.819
13	Khoury	Reem	9.769
3	El Jurdi	Daria	9.769
8	Hayek	Mariam	9.744
2	Kahwagi	Carole	9.731
11	Matar	Niveen	9.725
4	Boustany	Elsa	9.700
7	Munayer	Lucie	9.700
9	Nicolas	Marita	9.700
5	Mouawad	Eva	9.688
1	Gedeon	Amani	9.675

So is it sheer coincidence? Well, let’s move on to the elegant wear contest and see if a pattern materializes.

In round two, participants were dressed with world-renowned fashion designer Georges Hobeika’s breathtaking couture. Here’s how they fared:

Spot	Surname	First name	Elegant wear score
1	Gedeon	Amani	9.744
2	Kahwagi	Carole	9.769
3	El Jurdi	Daria	9.781
4	Boustany	Elsa	9.763
5	Mouawad	Eva	9.750
6	Sader	Jana	9.888
7	Munayer	Lucie	9.763
8	Hayek	Mariam	9.794
9	Nicolas	Marita	9.763
10	Barrak	Mireille	9.806
11	Matar	Niveen	9.750
12	Helou	Perla	9.906
13	Khoury	Reem	9.856
14	Najem	Sabine	9.906
15	Mohsen	Yousra	9.894

Minimum score: 9.744. Maximum score: 9.906. Average: 9.809.

Indubitable is the realization that the same top-scoring ladies from the swimsuit competition nabbed the highest marks in the elegant wear category. Similarly, the six lowest-scoring participants in the swimsuit competition were the very same ladies who fleshed out the six lowest ranks in elegant wear.

And uncannily enough, five of the six ladies who appeared last in the presentation lineup ranked in the top six. Here's confirmation:

Spot	Surname	First name	Elegant score
14	Najem	Sabine	9.906
12	Helou	Perla	9.906
15	Mohsen	Yousra	9.894
6	Sader	Jana	9.888
13	Khoury	Reem	9.856
10	Barrak	Mireille	9.806
8	Hayek	Mariam	9.794
3	El Jurdi	Daria	9.781
2	Kahwagi	Carole	9.769
4	Boustany	Elsa	9.763
7	Munayer	Lucie	9.763
9	Nicolas	Marita	9.763
11	Matar	Niveen	9.750
5	Mouawad	Eva	9.750
1	Gedeon	Amani	9.744

Note that scores on the whole increase with order of appearance of contestants

So I pose the question again: is it a coincidence that a contestant's spot in the lineup was directly proportional to the score she earned? In other words, if she appeared later rather than earlier in the queue, was she more likely to merit a higher score?

I can think of two possible explanations. Either judges started out prohibitively critical in their ratings, loosening up progressively with each passing participant as they adjusted expectations.

Or the show producer assigned each participant a spot in the lineup relative to his own impression of how she’d be received by judges. Why? In the interest of amplifying viewers' suspense. In his eyes, the ladies toward the end of the queue scintillated more so than their counterparts at the front of the queue. Classic plot build-up.

Which do you think it might have been?

The scores from the swimsuit and elegant wear contests were then tallied to determine the top nine ladies who proceeded to the next stage of competition, the interview.

Spot	Surname	First name	Score sum
1	Gedeon	Amani	19.419
2	Kahwagi	Carole	19.500
3	El Jurdi	Daria	19.550
4	Boustany	Elsa	19.463
5	Mouawad	Eva	19.438
6	Sader	Jana	19.776
7	Munayer	Lucie	19.463
8	Hayek	Mariam	19.538
9	Nicolas	Marita	19.463
10	Barrak	Mireille	19.625
11	Matar	Niveen	19.475
12	Helou	Perla	19.756
13	Khoury	Reem	19.625
14	Najem	Sabine	19.781
15	Mohsen	Yousra	19.732

Local averages of score sums increase with order of appearance of contestants

In descending order of performance, the table looks like this:

Spot	Surname	First name	Score sum
14	Najem	Sabine	19.781
6	Sader	Jana	19.776
12	Helou	Perla	19.756
15	Mohsen	Yousra	19.732
13	Khoury	Reem	19.625
10	Barrak	Mireille	19.625
3	El Jurdi	Daria	19.550
8	Hayek	Mariam	19.538
2	Kahwagi	Carole	19.500
11	Matar	Niveen	19.475
4	Boustany	Elsa	19.463
7	Munayer	Lucie	19.463
9	Nicolas	Marita	19.463
5	Mouawad	Eva	19.438
1	Gedeon	Amani	19.419

Again, you’ll notice that ladies 10, 12, 13, 14 and 15 occupied five of the top six ranks. Heading the list were Sabine Najem and Jana Sader in the top two seats.

Each lady was required to answer a question articulated by a different judge, so no two questions bore any resemblance to one another. The judges scored the ladies as such, with a minimum score of 9.738 and a maximum score of 9.931.

Spot	Surname	First name	Score sum	Interview
6	Sader	Jana	19.776	9.931
12	Helou	Perla	19.756	9.900
14	Najem	Sabine	19.781	9.894
13	Khoury	Reem	19.625	9.856
3	El Jurdi	Daria	19.55	9.844
8	Hayek	Mariam	19.538	9.831
10	Barrak	Mireille	19.625	9.769
2	Kahwagi	Carole	19.500	9.763
15	Mohsen	Yousra	19.732	9.738

The formula used to select the top five ladies graduating to the final phase of the contest was described by presenter Dima Sadek as follows: 75% of the combined total of swimsuit and elegant wear, complemented by 25% of the interview total. A perfect score can be computed as 0.75*(10.000 + 10.000) + 0.25*(10.000) = 15.000 + 2.500 = 17.500.

Crunching the numbers, here’s the yield in descending order of total performance:

Spot	Surname	First name	Score sum	Interview	Aggregate total
6	Sader	Jana	19.776	9.931	17.315
14	Najem	Sabine	19.781	9.894	17.309
12	Helou	Perla	19.756	9.900	17.292
15	Mohsen	Yousra	19.732	9.738	17.234
13	Khoury	Reem	19.625	9.856	17.183
10	Barrak	Mireille	19.625	9.769	17.161
3	El Jurdi	Daria	19.550	9.844	17.124
8	Hayek	Mariam	19.538	9.831	17.111
2	Kahwagi	Carole	19.500	9.763	17.066

Aggregate totals before the victory-determining question

To reinforce the salient observation from the get-go, five of the top six scorers were ladies whose spots appeared toward the end of the original lineup (i.e., spots 10, 12, 13, 14 and 15).

Furthermore, it's worth mention that entering the final round, Jana Sader and Sabine Najem clung fiercely to the top two ranks.

In that final round, the top five ladies wrestled with an identical question pertaining to the effectiveness of political demonstrations, and their responses were privately scored by the judges. Those results were never revealed to viewers, and we’re not even sure how they were weighed relative to the foregoing outcomes aggregated from the swimsuit, elegant wear, and interview stages.

What we do know is the final ranking:

Spot	Surname	First name	Rank
12	Helou	Perla	Winner
6	Sader	Jana	1^st runner up
14	Najem	Sabine	2^nd runner up
13	Khoury	Reem	3^rd runner up
15	Mohsen	Yousra	4^th runner up

There you have it again: ladies #12, #13, #14 and #15 stole the top five seats of Miss Lebanon 2017. Perla Helou emerged from her longstanding cumulative rank of 3^rd to clinch gold, ousting both Jana Sader and Sabine Najem.

Perla Helou was crowned Miss Lebanon 2017 (photo source: Instagram)

It’d be telling to compare this year’s patterns to those from previous years, or to see if they project to forthcoming pageants. Only then can we statistically test the null hypothesis that those participants whose spot in line falls toward the end in fact fare better than those whose spot falls toward the front.

But I’ve already exceeded my pageant viewing quota for one year, wouldn’t you say? My assessment will just have to wait till next year, and even then, I can’t guarantee an equal sentiment of curiosity will prevail!